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Scored forecasts
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Outcomes recorded
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Awaiting outcomes
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Study status
Scientific boundary. The frozen protocol defines the endpoint, threshold, model, features, training rule, comparators, calibration, uncertainty procedure and success/neutral/failure rules. The freeze establishes anteriority and integrity; it does not establish forecasting skill or clinical/public-health utility.
Frozen study contract
Study
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Frozen source commit
—Endpoint
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Comparator rule
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Primary uncertainty
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Publication rule
Publish positive, neutral, or negative results. Misses are not deleted.
Prospective receipt stream
Each receipt preserves forecast time → information set → model probability → baselines → hashes → outcome horizon. When resolved, the separate outcome record adds observed burden and score contributions without altering the forecast bytes.
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