LassaAI — One-Page Summary

Model Performance (Test Set 2024–2025, Prospective Holdout)

0.9994

AUROC

1.000

Recall

0.910

Precision

0.953

F1 Score

Missed outbreaks

Training used strict temporal cross-validation (train ≤2021, validate 2022–23, test 2024–25) to prevent data leakage. All metrics are retrospective. Prospective validation is the immediate next step and the subject of a NIH Fogarty R21 application.

What LassaAI Does

Outbreak Prediction Model

Generates weekly outbreak probability for all 37 Nigerian states
4–8 week forward prediction horizon
Trained on 27,417 state-week observations, 2011–2026
Updates automatically when new NCDC sitrep data are available
Live dashboard: gailabai.com/lassa

Clinical Copilot

Bayesian probability calculator for healthcare workers at point of care
23 clinical and epidemiological features; literature-derived weights
Calibrated to 7/7 published clinical scenarios (Bausch 2001; Okokhere 2018; WHO 2017)
Freely accessible: gailabai.com/lassa-copilot
Always recommends RT-PCR confirmation

Dataset

Item	Value
Time period	2011–2026 (Week 22)
States covered	37 (all states + FCT)
Observations	27,417 state-weeks
Confirmed cases	8,138
Deaths	910
Case source	NCDC Weekly Situation Reports
Weather source	Open-Meteo ERA5 reanalysis
Outbreak rate	6.1% (1,684 positive / 25,733 negative)

Top Feature Importance

8-wk rolling cases

49.6%

Cases lag 1 week

26.1%

4-wk rolling cases

13.6%

Cases lag 2 weeks

2.2%

Weeks into dry season

1.8%

Calendar month

1.7%

Weather (combined)

~1%

Recent case history accounts for 89% of predictive power. Meteorological features (temperature, rainfall, humidity) contribute ~1%, consistent with published Lassa ecology literature.

Proposed Research Partnership

We are preparing a NIH Fogarty International Center R21 application (up to $275,000 / 2 years) with two aims:

Aim 1 (Year 1): Prospective validation with NCDC — 12-month blinded prediction logging vs. confirmed case outcomes
Aim 2 (Year 2): Clinical validation of the Copilot at a Nigerian Lassa fever treatment centre (target: ISTH Irrua or FMC Owo)

Application deadline: October 16, 2026 (LOI due September 16, 2026)

Top 5 States by Confirmed Cases (2011–2026)

State	Confirmed Cases	Note
Edo	2,574	ISTH Irrua referral base
Ondo	1,638	FMC Owo / ILFRC site
Bauchi	1,040
Taraba	884
Ebonyi	728

Key Limitations (Disclosed)

(1) Retrospective only — prospective validation not yet complete. (2) Confirmed cases only — true Lassa incidence substantially higher. (3) State-capital weather — rural microclimates may differ. (4) Reporting variability — testing capacity varies by state and year. (5) Clinical Copilot — not validated in a prospective clinical study; not a diagnostic device.

Not a medical device. LassaAI is a research and clinical decision support tool. It has not been approved by any regulatory authority. All clinical decisions must be made by qualified healthcare professionals with RT-PCR laboratory confirmation. For research and public health purposes only.