GaiaLab logs each repurposing candidate with a prediction timestamp and matches it against ClinicalTrials.gov registration records. Matches where the prediction precedes the trial registration date are classified as prospective. All others are retrospective — the system surfaced a drug that investigators had independently registered for study. Completed trial status indicates the trial finished; it does not indicate efficacy was demonstrated.
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Total concordance matches
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Unique drug–disease pairs
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Matched completed trials
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Currently recruiting
— flagged·— advisory
Annotation flags
Prediction Calibration — Reliability Diagram
Each bar shows the observed validation rate for predictions grouped by confidence decile. A well-calibrated system tracks the diagonal (green line). Bars above = overconfident; bars below = underconfident.
Epistemic Transparency: Prospective classification uses prediction timestamp vs. trial first-posted date. AI training data predates predictions; some 'prospective' associations may have appeared in preprints before trial registration. Prospective concordance is necessary but not sufficient for independent prediction.
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Weekly Concordance Summary
Prospective: prediction timestamp precedes trial registration date · Retrospective: trial pre-existed the prediction · Completed trial status ≠ proven efficacy