GaiaLab logs each repurposing candidate with a prediction timestamp and matches it against ClinicalTrials.gov registration records. Matches where the prediction precedes the trial registration date are classified as prospective (forward prediction). All others are retrospective — the system independently surfaced a drug that investigators had already registered for study. Retrospective concordance is not forward prediction. Only entries with a confirmed NCT ID are shown in the top-match panel. Completed trial status indicates the trial finished enrollment; it does not indicate proven efficacy or regulatory approval.
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Total concordance matches
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Unique drug–disease pairs
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Matched completed trials
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Currently recruiting
— flagged·— advisory
Annotation flags
Note: Matched completed trials and Currently recruiting are trial-level counts — a multi-arm match can map to more than one trial/status, so these may sum to more than the total match count.
🎯 Verified Forward PredictionsAI semantic match · drug confirmed in ClinicalTrials.gov intervention list
— confirmed prospective matches
Each prediction below was generated by GaiaLab before a clinical trial testing that exact drug for that exact disease was registered. Discovered via pgvector semantic similarity (not exact name matching), then checked against the live ClinicalTrials.gov record to confirm the predicted drug appears in the trial's intervention list. Lead time = days the prediction preceded trial registration.
Verification provenance: reproducible registry check (drug present in trial intervention list; trial registered after prediction date) performed by an AI-assisted review with operator sign-off — not independent expert peer review. Click any trial to inspect the source record; independent domain-expert re-review is recommended before citation.
Calibration Performance
Brier Score: —
vs 0.25 no-skill baseline · N=— resolved predictions · lower is better
A Brier score below 0.25 beats a no-skill baseline. Important caveat: the Expected Calibration Error (ECE) is currently high — so this low Brier is driven substantially by class imbalance in the resolved set, not by well-calibrated confidence. Read the Brier and ECE together, not the Brier alone. Full methodology →
Prediction Calibration — Reliability Diagram
Each bar shows the observed validation rate for predictions grouped by confidence decile. A well-calibrated system tracks the diagonal (green line). Bars above = overconfident; bars below = underconfident.
Epistemic Transparency: Prospective classification uses prediction timestamp vs. trial first-posted date. AI training data predates predictions; some 'prospective' associations may have appeared in preprints before trial registration. Prospective concordance is necessary but not sufficient for independent prediction.
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Weekly Co-Occurrence Audit
Prospective: prediction precedes trial registration · Retrospective: trial pre-existed the prediction · Completed ≠ proven efficacy · Featured matches require confirmed NCT ID
Analyzing predictions…
The Prospective Ledger — Building in Real Time
— predictions in the 30–90 day window.
A prospective match fires the first time a new trial is registered after we predicted the drug — not a coincidence. Every GaiaLab prediction is timestamped at analysis time.
Exact name-matching: 0 prospective matches in this ledger so far (expected first hits June–August 2026).
Separately, semantic matching has already surfaced 15 AI-verified prospective matches (AI-assisted review + operator sign-off, not expert peer review) — see the “🎯 Verified Forward Predictions” panel at the top of this page. Check back weekly — or get notified below.
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unmatched predictions
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ripening (30–90 days)
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overdue (90+ days)
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oldest prediction (days)
I want to know when GaiaLab's first genuine forward prediction is confirmed.
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Checked every 6 hours against ClinicalTrials.gov.
Top Verified Co-Occurrence Matches
NCT-CONFIRMED
Filter by Disease Category
⬡ High Confidence Co-occurrences
DIRECT TARGET MATCH
Direct biological rationale confirmed — drug's primary target appears in the submitted gene panel. These are not coincidental co-occurrences.
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Predictions to Watch
RIPENING WINDOW
Top 5 predictions most likely to convert to a prospective match — selected by direct target overlap, high confidence score, and active trial history. When any of these fires, GaiaLab will notify subscribers immediately.
Prediction Age Distribution
Each bar = one day. ■ Ripening (30–90 days)
■ Overdue (>90 days, no match)
■ Young (<30 days). —