Retrospective Benchmark · Prospective Tracking Live from May 19, 2026

GaiaLab's retrospective benchmark.
drug-disease pairs GaiaLab scores highly
have matching ClinicalTrials.gov trials.

When GaiaLab runs its evidence scoring against known disease contexts, it surfaces the drugs that actually went to clinical trials — including emerging therapies like Lecanemab, Lorlatinib, and Adagrasib with trials registered 2023–2026. These are retrospective concordance matches: the trials pre-existed our analyses. Prospective tracking live from May 19, 2026 — every new analysis is timestamped in real time. Separately, semantic matching has surfaced 15 prospective matches (2 genuine off-label repurposing hypotheses + 13 on-label concordance).

Unique drug-disease
pairs scored
Retrospective concordance
matches (unique pairs)
Pairs with completed
ClinicalTrials.gov trial
Pairs with positive
trial outcome signal
CT.gov metadata only
Days of prospective
tracking (live from
May 19, 2026)
Brier score
vs 0.25 no-skill baseline
lower = better calibration
📅
Prospective Tracking Started May 19, 2026

Every new analysis from today is timestamped in real time. When a trial registers on ClinicalTrials.gov after GaiaLab scored that drug-disease pair, it counts as a genuine forward prediction. Return in 30, 60, and 90 days to see prospective predictions accumulate. No cherry-picking — every scored pair is in the ledger.

Prospective tracking active for: 0 days
· All name-matched ledger matches are retrospective (trial pre-dates our analysis)
Separately, semantic matching surfaced 15 prospective matches ↗ where the prediction pre-dates the trial — but in honest terms, 13 are on-label concordance (the drug is already standard-of-care, so the lead-time isn't foresight) and only 2 are genuine off-label repurposing hypotheses.

Recently Registered Trials Matching Our Benchmark

Trials registered 2023–2026 for drugs GaiaLab scores highly
These trials were registered recently. GaiaLab surfaces these drugs through evidence scoring — independent of trial registration data. All matches in this name-matched ledger are retrospective: the drug-disease pair appeared in our scoring before we checked CT.gov, but the trial itself pre-dates May 2026. (Semantic matching surfaces prospective matches separately — see /new-trials.)
Drug Disease NCT ID Trial Registered Why GaiaLab Scores It
Lecanemab Alzheimer's disease NCT07212062 ↗ Oct 2025 Anti-amyloid mAb; APOE, APP, PSEN panel targets; published Phase 3 efficacy
Lorlatinib Non-small cell lung cancer NCT06893354 ↗ Mar 2025 3rd-gen ALK/ROS1 inhibitor; high CIViC/ChEMBL evidence for EGFR/ALK NSCLC
Carboplatin Triple-negative breast cancer NCT06845319 ↗ Feb 2025 DNA damage repair; BRCA1/TP53 targets; strong mechanistic alignment with TNBC
Gemcitabine Pan-cancer NCT06991491 ↗ May 2025 Nucleoside analog; broad oncology evidence across KRAS/TP53 panels
Adagrasib Colorectal cancer NCT05198934 ↗ Sep 2023 KRAS G12C inhibitor; BRAF/KRAS/NRAS panel; FDA-approved for NSCLC/CRC

What the Matches Represent

Domain intelligence, not database lookup

The matches include precision oncology agents, emerging Alzheimer's therapies, targeted AML drugs, and novel KRAS inhibitors — not random concordance. GaiaLab scores these through mechanistic pathway alignment, target overlap, and clinical evidence depth.

Targeted Oncology
Adagrasib · Dabrafenib · Encorafenib
Lorlatinib · Osimertinib · Alectinib
Brigatinib · Selumetinib · Tovorafenib
KRAS · BRAF · ALK · EGFR inhibitors
Alzheimer's Emerging Therapies
Lecanemab · Donanemab
Aducanumab · Gantenerumab
Solanezumab
Anti-amyloid antibodies · APP/APOE/PSEN panels
Precision AML
Gilteritinib · Quizartinib
Midostaurin · Ponatinib
Pacritinib
FLT3 · BCR-ABL · JAK2 targeted agents
Immunotherapy
Atezolizumab · Cetuximab
Amivantamab · Panitumumab
Bevacizumab
PD-L1 · EGFR · VEGF · bispecific agents
🔬

Retrospective Concordance — Transparent Methodology

GaiaLab queries the ClinicalTrials.gov API v2. A drug-disease pair is counted as a concordance match when a registered trial exists for that exact pair. All matches in this name-matched ledger are retrospective — the trial was registered before our analysis. (A separate semantic-matching layer has surfaced 15 prospective matches, of which only 2 are genuine off-label repurposing hypotheses — the rest are on-label concordance.) Completed trial status does not imply positive outcome.

Methodology →

Prediction Calibration by Confidence Level

Trial Match Rate — drug-disease pair appears in ClinicalTrials.gov
Research Direction Rate — matches research direction in literature

Most Confirmed Drugs

By ClinicalTrials.gov match count

Disease Coverage

Full Predictions Ledger

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Drug Disease Key Targets Trial (NCT) Trial Status Verdict Predicted